October 22 frozen research reference; current refresh blocked · BLOCKED_STALE_REFERENCE
The latest refresh attempt (October 24, 2026) did not qualify: candidate matchups failed validation; poll timing failed validation; poll publication timestamps are missing for 338 of 368 records; the source feed is stale; the feed publication timestamp is stale or inconsistent. Maine's frozen race is Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins; archived feed rows for the former Platner matchup remain candidate-mismatched and are not promoted into a current refresh. This page retains the October 22, 2026 research reference and does not make a current forecast claim.
THE 2026 SENATE · OCTOBER 22, 2026
COYNTOSS Beta 0.2 tests a prespecified change to how polls influence the Senate forecast. October 22 frozen research reference, not a current or prospective forecast. The full race-level record is below.
THE CHAMBER
400000 simulation draws · 20261023 seed · threshold 51 seats
EXPECTED SEATS
Middle 80% of outcomes 48–54 Democratic-caucus seats · median 51
Expected seat counts include incumbents and allied independents according to the source caucus assignment.
ALL 35 CONTESTS · OCTOBER 22, 2026
Margins name the candidate ahead; each win probability appears beside the candidate it describes. Senate caucus effects are reported separately from party identity.
Frozen research reference
COYNTOSS Beta 0.2
| State | Candidates | E margin | Win probability | D margin | E−D | A margin | Stable margin | Rating | Polling | Model comparisons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlabamaSouth | Everett Wess (D)Barry Moore (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Moore (R) +22.3 | Wess (D) 0.4%Moore (R) 99.6% |
B+22.6 | +0.32 | B+22.5 | B+22.5 | Safe R | 2polls · 2 firms · latest fieldwork October 16, 2026 | Wess (D) +0.3 margin · Wess (D) +0.0 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Moore (R) +22.5 · Wess (D) 0.4%Beta change: Wess (D) +0.3 margin · Wess (D) +0.0 pp |
| AlaskaWest | Mary Peltola (D)Dan Sullivan (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Peltola (D) +0.9 | Peltola (D) 59.7%Sullivan (R) 40.3% |
A+1.2 | -0.33 | A+1.9 | A+1.9 | Toss-up | 24polls · 11 firms · latest fieldwork October 16, 2026 | Sullivan (R) +1.0 margin · Sullivan (R) +9.7 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Peltola (D) +1.9 · Peltola (D) 69.3%Beta change: Sullivan (R) +1.0 margin · Sullivan (R) +9.6 pp |
| ArkansasSouth | Hallie Shoffner (D)Tom Cotton (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Cotton (R) +16.5 | Shoffner (D) 0.2%Cotton (R) 99.8% |
B+17.3 | +0.77 | B+15.5 | B+15.5 | Safe R | 7polls · 6 firms · latest fieldwork October 13, 2026 | Cotton (R) +1.0 margin · Cotton (R) +0.1 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Cotton (R) +15.5 · Shoffner (D) 0.3%Beta change: Cotton (R) +1.0 margin · Cotton (R) +0.1 pp |
| ColoradoWest | John Hickenlooper (D)Mark Baisley (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Hickenlooper (D) +20.6 | Hickenlooper (D) 96.2%Baisley (R) 3.8% |
A+20.6 | +0.00 | A+20.6 | A+20.6 | Safe D | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Hickenlooper (D) +20.6 · Hickenlooper (D) 96.2%Beta change: No change margin · Baisley (R) +0.1 pp |
| DelawareSouth | Chris Coons (D)Michael Katz (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Coons (D) +24.4 | Coons (D) 97.9%Katz (R) 2.1% |
A+24.4 | +0.00 | A+24.4 | A+24.4 | Safe D | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Coons (D) +24.4 · Coons (D) 98.0%Beta change: No change margin · Katz (R) +0.1 pp |
| FloridaSouth | Angie Nixon (D)Ashley Moody (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Moody (R) +6.3 | Nixon (D) 5.5%Moody (R) 94.5% |
B+5.7 | -0.65 | B+6.2 | B+6.2 | Lean R | 16polls · 12 firms · latest fieldwork October 20, 2026 | Moody (R) +0.1 margin · Moody (R) +0.2 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Moody (R) +6.2 · Nixon (D) 5.8%Beta change: Moody (R) +0.1 margin · Moody (R) +0.3 pp |
| GeorgiaSouth | Jon Ossoff (D)Mike Collins (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Ossoff (D) +7.8 | Ossoff (D) 97.3%Collins (R) 2.7% |
A+7.8 | +0.02 | A+8.0 | A+8.0 | Likely D | 16polls · 15 firms · latest fieldwork October 20, 2026 | Collins (R) +0.2 margin · Collins (R) +0.2 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Ossoff (D) +8.0 · Ossoff (D) 97.5%Beta change: Collins (R) +0.2 margin · Collins (R) +0.2 pp |
| IdahoWest | Todd Achilles (I)Jim Risch (R)Todd Achilles win counts toward Democratic caucusD-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Risch (R) +30.1 | Achilles (I) 0.9%Risch (R) 99.1% |
B+30.1 | +0.00 | B+30.1 | B+30.1 | Safe R | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Risch (R) +30.1 · Achilles (I) 0.9%Beta change: No change margin · Achilles (I) +0.1 pp |
| IllinoisMidwest | Juliana Stratton (D)Don Tracy (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Stratton (D) +19.2 | Stratton (D) 98.6%Tracy (R) 1.4% |
A+19.2 | +0.00 | A+19.0 | A+19.0 | Safe D | 1polls · 1 firms · latest fieldwork October 20, 2026 | Stratton (D) +0.2 margin · Stratton (D) +0.0 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Stratton (D) +19.0 · Stratton (D) 98.5%Beta change: Stratton (D) +0.2 margin · Stratton (D) +0.1 pp |
| IowaMidwest | Josh Turek (D)Ashley Hinson (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Hinson (R) +1.4 | Turek (D) 34.9%Hinson (R) 65.1% |
B+1.5 | +0.11 | B+0.6 | B+0.6 | Toss-up | 30polls · 25 firms · latest fieldwork October 19, 2026 | Hinson (R) +0.8 margin · Hinson (R) +8.4 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Hinson (R) +0.6 · Turek (D) 43.7%Beta change: Hinson (R) +0.8 margin · Hinson (R) +8.8 pp |
| KansasMidwest | Adam Hamilton (D)Roger Marshall (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Marshall (R) +5.0 | Hamilton (D) 14.1%Marshall (R) 85.9% |
B+4.8 | -0.21 | B+3.3 | B+3.3 | Lean R | 11polls · 10 firms · latest fieldwork October 14, 2026 | Marshall (R) +1.7 margin · Marshall (R) +9.5 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Marshall (R) +3.3 · Hamilton (D) 23.6%Beta change: Marshall (R) +1.7 margin · Marshall (R) +9.6 pp |
| KentuckySouth | Charles Booker (D)Andy Barr (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Barr (R) +19.6 | Booker (D) 2.2%Barr (R) 97.8% |
B+19.6 | +0.00 | B+19.2 | B+19.2 | Safe R | 1polls · 1 firms · latest fieldwork August 27, 2026 | Barr (R) +0.4 margin · Barr (R) +0.2 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Barr (R) +19.2 · Booker (D) 2.3%Beta change: Barr (R) +0.4 margin · Barr (R) +0.0 pp |
| LouisianaSouth | Jamie Davis (D)Julia Letlow (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Letlow (R) +12.7 | Davis (D) 7.1%Letlow (R) 92.9% |
B+12.7 | +0.00 | B+12.2 | B+12.2 | Likely R | 1polls · 1 firms · latest fieldwork September 19, 2026 | Letlow (R) +0.5 margin · Letlow (R) +0.7 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Letlow (R) +12.2 · Davis (D) 7.8%Beta change: Letlow (R) +0.5 margin · Letlow (R) +0.8 pp |
| MaineNortheast | Troy Jackson (D)Susan Collins (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Jackson (D) +2.8 | Jackson (D) 77.0%Collins (R) 23.0% |
A+2.5 | +0.23 | A+1.9 | A+1.9 | Toss-up | 26polls · 23 firms · latest fieldwork October 14, 2026 | Jackson (D) +0.9 margin · Jackson (D) +7.8 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Jackson (D) +1.9 · Jackson (D) 69.3%Beta change: Jackson (D) +0.9 margin · Jackson (D) +7.8 pp |
| MassachusettsNortheast | Ed Markey (D)John Deaton (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Markey (D) +33.0 | Markey (D) 100.0%Deaton (R) 0.0% |
A+33.5 | -0.43 | A+32.6 | A+32.6 | Safe D | 6polls · 4 firms · latest fieldwork October 18, 2026 | Markey (D) +0.5 margin · Markey (D) +0.0 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Markey (D) +32.6 · Markey (D) 100.0%Beta change: Markey (D) +0.5 margin · Deaton (R) +0.0 pp |
| MichiganMidwest | Abdul El-Sayed (D)Mike Rogers (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | El-Sayed (D) +4.5 | El-Sayed (D) 88.2%Rogers (R) 11.8% |
A+4.3 | +0.23 | A+3.7 | A+3.7 | Lean D | 34polls · 25 firms · latest fieldwork October 18, 2026 | El-Sayed (D) +0.8 margin · El-Sayed (D) +4.2 ppvs same-input APublished stable: El-Sayed (D) +3.7 · El-Sayed (D) 84.1%Beta change: El-Sayed (D) +0.8 margin · El-Sayed (D) +4.0 pp |
| MinnesotaMidwest | Peggy Flanagan (D)Michele Tafoya (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Flanagan (D) +6.9 | Flanagan (D) 96.0%Tafoya (R) 4.0% |
A+7.0 | -0.02 | A+5.8 | A+5.8 | Lean D | 13polls · 13 firms · latest fieldwork October 12, 2026 | Flanagan (D) +1.2 margin · Flanagan (D) +2.9 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Flanagan (D) +5.8 · Flanagan (D) 93.0%Beta change: Flanagan (D) +1.2 margin · Flanagan (D) +3.0 pp |
| MississippiSouth | Scott Colom (D)Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Hyde-Smith (R) +16.6 | Colom (D) 6.9%Hyde-Smith (R) 93.1% |
B+16.6 | +0.00 | B+16.6 | B+16.6 | Safe R | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Hyde-Smith (R) +16.6 · Colom (D) 7.0%Beta change: No change margin · Hyde-Smith (R) +0.1 pp |
| MontanaWest | Seth Bodnar (I)Kurt Alme (R)Seth Bodnar win counts toward Democratic caucusD-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Alme (R) +15.2 | Bodnar (I) 2.3%Alme (R) 97.7% |
B+15.3 | +0.06 | B+15.8 | B+15.8 | Safe R | 2polls · 2 firms · latest fieldwork September 17, 2026 | Bodnar (I) +0.6 margin · Bodnar (I) +0.3 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Alme (R) +15.8 · Bodnar (I) 2.0%Beta change: Bodnar (I) +0.6 margin · Bodnar (I) +0.3 pp |
| NebraskaMidwest | Dan Osborn (I)Pete Ricketts (R)Dan Osborn win counts toward Democratic caucusD-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Ricketts (R) +4.8 | Osborn (I) 14.9%Ricketts (R) 85.1% |
B+5.0 | +0.22 | B+4.4 | B+4.4 | Lean R | 9polls · 7 firms · latest fieldwork October 3, 2026 | Ricketts (R) +0.4 margin · Ricketts (R) +1.9 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Ricketts (R) +4.4 · Osborn (I) 16.8%Beta change: Ricketts (R) +0.4 margin · Ricketts (R) +1.9 pp |
| New HampshireNortheast | Chris Pappas (D)John Sununu (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Pappas (D) +7.1 | Pappas (D) 96.2%Sununu (R) 3.8% |
A+7.8 | -0.74 | A+7.2 | A+7.2 | Likely D | 19polls · 12 firms · latest fieldwork October 20, 2026 | Sununu (R) +0.1 margin · Sununu (R) +0.2 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Pappas (D) +7.2 · Pappas (D) 96.5%Beta change: Sununu (R) +0.1 margin · Sununu (R) +0.2 pp |
| New JerseyNortheast | Cory Booker (D)Justin Murphy (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Booker (D) +17.3 | Booker (D) 93.8%Murphy (R) 6.2% |
A+17.3 | +0.00 | A+17.3 | A+17.3 | Safe D | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Booker (D) +17.3 · Booker (D) 94.0%Beta change: No change margin · Murphy (R) +0.2 pp |
| New MexicoWest | Ben Ray Luján (D)Larry Marker (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Luján (D) +16.5 | Luján (D) 99.3%Marker (R) 0.7% |
A+16.3 | +0.18 | A+16.6 | A+16.6 | Safe D | 3polls · 2 firms · latest fieldwork October 9, 2026 | Marker (R) +0.1 margin · Marker (R) +0.0 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Luján (D) +16.6 · Luján (D) 99.4%Beta change: Marker (R) +0.1 margin · Marker (R) +0.1 pp |
| North CarolinaSouth | Roy Cooper (D)Michael Whatley (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Cooper (D) +7.8 | Cooper (D) 97.4%Whatley (R) 2.6% |
A+8.1 | -0.27 | A+9.1 | A+9.1 | Likely D | 26polls · 22 firms · latest fieldwork October 20, 2026 | Whatley (R) +1.3 margin · Whatley (R) +1.2 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Cooper (D) +9.1 · Cooper (D) 98.5%Beta change: Whatley (R) +1.3 margin · Whatley (R) +1.2 pp |
| OhioMidwest | Sherrod Brown (D)Jon Husted (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Brown (D) +1.8 | Brown (D) 68.3%Husted (R) 31.7% |
A+1.8 | +0.00 | A+2.5 | A+2.5 | Toss-up | 26polls · 22 firms · latest fieldwork October 19, 2026 | Husted (R) +0.7 margin · Husted (R) +6.3 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Brown (D) +2.5 · Brown (D) 74.9%Beta change: Husted (R) +0.7 margin · Husted (R) +6.6 pp |
| OklahomaSouth | N'Kiyla Thomas (D)Kevin Hern (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Hern (R) +28.0 | Thomas (D) 1.3%Hern (R) 98.7% |
B+28.0 | +0.00 | B+28.0 | B+28.0 | Safe R | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Hern (R) +28.0 · Thomas (D) 1.3%Beta change: No change margin · Hern (R) +0.0 pp |
| OregonWest | Jeff Merkley (D)David Brock Smith (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Merkley (D) +25.5 | Merkley (D) 98.2%Smith (R) 1.8% |
A+25.5 | +0.00 | A+25.5 | A+25.5 | Safe D | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Merkley (D) +25.5 · Merkley (D) 98.1%Beta change: No change margin · Merkley (D) +0.1 pp |
| Rhode IslandNortheast | Jack Reed (D)Raymond Mackay (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Reed (D) +28.5 | Reed (D) 100.0%Mackay (R) 0.0% |
A+29.0 | -0.41 | A+29.3 | A+29.3 | Safe D | 5polls · 3 firms · latest fieldwork October 11, 2026 | Mackay (R) +0.7 margin · Mackay (R) +0.0 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Reed (D) +29.3 · Reed (D) 100.0%Beta change: Mackay (R) +0.7 margin · Reed (D) +0.0 pp |
| South CarolinaSouth | Annie Andrews (D)Darline Graham Nordone (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Nordone (R) +6.6 | Andrews (D) 8.0%Nordone (R) 92.0% |
B+6.2 | -0.40 | B+5.4 | B+5.4 | Lean R | 8polls · 6 firms · latest fieldwork October 18, 2026 | Nordone (R) +1.3 margin · Nordone (R) +4.4 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Nordone (R) +5.4 · Andrews (D) 12.3%Beta change: Nordone (R) +1.3 margin · Nordone (R) +4.3 pp |
| South DakotaMidwest | Brian Bengs (I)Mike Rounds (R)Brian Bengs win counts toward Democratic caucusD-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Rounds (R) +17.3 | Bengs (I) 0.1%Rounds (R) 99.9% |
B+17.9 | +0.56 | B+16.2 | B+16.2 | Safe R | 8polls · 8 firms · latest fieldwork October 20, 2026 | Rounds (R) +1.2 margin · Rounds (R) +0.1 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Rounds (R) +16.2 · Bengs (I) 0.2%Beta change: Rounds (R) +1.2 margin · Rounds (R) +0.1 pp |
| TennesseeSouth | Marquita Bradshaw (D)Bill Hagerty (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Hagerty (R) +26.6 | Bradshaw (D) 0.5%Hagerty (R) 99.5% |
B+26.6 | +0.00 | B+26.6 | B+26.6 | Safe R | 1polls · 1 firms · latest fieldwork August 26, 2026 | Bradshaw (D) +0.0 margin · Bradshaw (D) +0.0 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Hagerty (R) +26.6 · Bradshaw (D) 0.5%Beta change: Bradshaw (D) +0.0 margin · Bradshaw (D) +0.1 pp |
| TexasSouth | James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Even | Talarico (D) 49.4%Paxton (R) 50.6% |
Even | -0.01 | A+1.2 | A+1.2 | Toss-up | 43polls · 33 firms · latest fieldwork October 19, 2026 | Paxton (R) +1.3 margin · Paxton (R) +13.5 ppvs same-input APublished stable: Talarico (D) +1.2 · Talarico (D) 63.3%Beta change: Paxton (R) +1.3 margin · Paxton (R) +13.8 pp |
| VirginiaSouth | Mark Warner (D)Bert Mizusawa (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Warner (D) +16.2 | Warner (D) 92.7%Mizusawa (R) 7.3% |
A+16.2 | +0.00 | A+16.2 | A+16.2 | Safe D | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Warner (D) +16.2 · Warner (D) 92.8%Beta change: No change margin · Mizusawa (R) +0.2 pp |
| West VirginiaSouth | Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)Shelley Moore Capito (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Capito (R) +39.1 | Anderson (D) 0.2%Capito (R) 99.8% |
B+39.1 | +0.00 | B+39.1 | B+39.1 | Safe R | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Capito (R) +39.1 · Anderson (D) 0.3%Beta change: No change margin · Capito (R) +0.0 pp |
| WyomingWest | James Byrd (D)Harriet Hageman (R)D-caucus award: A 1 / B 0 | Hageman (R) +40.0 | Byrd (D) 0.2%Hageman (R) 99.8% |
B+40.0 | +0.00 | B+40.0 | B+40.0 | Safe R | 0polls · 0 firms · latest fieldwork not available | No change margin · No changevs same-input APublished stable: Hageman (R) +40.0 · Byrd (D) 0.2%Beta change: No change margin · Byrd (D) +0.0 pp |
“Change vs same-input A” compares Beta with the production-equivalent Model A on the shared frozen input. “Published stable” uses the actual stable snapshot October 22, 2026 and its 50000-draw simulation. Positive margin changes favor the named candidate. Candidate party identity and Senate caucus effect are shown separately, including independent candidates.
THE OCTOBER 22 REFERENCE
Production has since published newer releases, including 2026-10-24-01 on main; this October 22 snapshot does not mirror those releases.
| Measure | Published stable (Oct 22 snapshot, 50,000 draws) | Model A, same input (research proxy) | Beta 0.1 Model D (frozen release) | Beta 0.2 Model E (experimental) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-caucus control | 68.616% | 68.434% | 61.923% | 61.465% |
| Expected D-caucus seats | 51.48896 | 51.47332 | 51.09504 | 51.05925 |
Stable is its actual archived 50,000-draw publication. A, D and E share 400,000 draws, seed 20261023 and frozen input. D uses the A polling center with 80% influence; E uses the firm-balanced center with the same reduction. Stable differences also include Monte Carlo sampling differences. Candidate margins above use positive side A and negative side B; E−D is in margin points.
HOW IT WORKS
Research lineage
v10–v22
Beta 0.2 uses candidate model E. The model specification is versioned and identified by a SHA-256 digest so later research can preserve this release as a fixed benchmark.
The firm-balanced polling center is combined with 80% of Model A's polling influence coefficient. This tests whether the aggregation change adds information beyond reduced polling influence.
Prior COYNTOSS research tested polling aggregation and polling influence across multiple election cycles. Historical backtests are evidence for testing a change, not proof it will improve future forecasts.
No parameter was tuned to the 2026 results. The 2026 snapshot predates Election Day and is not outcome validation.
The source status is October 22 frozen research reference; current refresh blocked. This page shows the October 22, 2026 reference; the attempted refresh did not qualify as a forecast update.
The tournament used historical comparisons with vintage and cohort limitations. Prospective performance remains unknown.
ACCURACY · APPROXIMATE-VINTAGE / INSPECTED
E's pooled historical margin RMSE is lower than both A and D, but its probability accuracy is not uniformly superior.
E's Brier is worse than D pooled (0.036148 vs 0.035620) entirely because of 2024 (E 0.0434, D 0.0372, A 0.0408), driven by Ohio and Arizona 2024. E beats D on Brier in 2018, 2020 and 2022. In 2024, E has worse Brier than both D and A at both horizons. The four Ohio/Arizona rows contribute +0.0073 to the 2024 mean Brier deficit versus D, exceeding the full +0.0062 deficit; the other 2024 races slightly favor E.
| Model / cycle | n | RMSE ↓ | Brier ↓ | Log loss ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 142 | 4.868088 | 0.040988 | 0.142933 |
| D | 142 | 4.596779 | 0.035620 | 0.126127 |
| E | 142 | 4.402490 | 0.036148 | 0.125237 |
| Model / cycle | n | RMSE ↓ | Brier ↓ | Log loss ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 / A | 10 | 2.867300 | 0.067779 | 0.208581 |
| 2018 / D | 10 | 2.836185 | 0.075803 | 0.228458 |
| 2018 / E | 10 | 2.778653 | 0.069238 | 0.215385 |
| 2020 / A | 30 | 4.208510 | 0.062542 | 0.200087 |
| 2020 / D | 30 | 3.659931 | 0.048741 | 0.158388 |
| 2020 / E | 30 | 3.555704 | 0.044995 | 0.146317 |
| 2022 / A | 48 | 6.213074 | 0.022128 | 0.090166 |
| 2022 / D | 48 | 5.886072 | 0.017241 | 0.080073 |
| 2022 / E | 48 | 5.532653 | 0.015587 | 0.075001 |
| 2024 / A | 54 | 4.079500 | 0.040817 | 0.145927 |
| 2024 / D | 54 | 3.979626 | 0.037227 | 0.130190 |
| 2024 / E | 54 | 3.912091 | 0.043380 | 0.141487 |
| Model / cycle | n | RMSE ↓ | Brier ↓ | Log loss ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 / fixed_A_1.0 | 30 | 4.208510 | 0.062217 | 0.198009 |
| 2020 / fixed_D_0.8 | 30 | 3.659931 | 0.048522 | 0.157940 |
| 2020 / fixed_E_0.8 | 30 | 3.555704 | 0.044853 | 0.146083 |
| 2020 / nested_center_selector_alpha_0.8 | 30 | 3.555704 | 0.044853 | 0.146083 |
| 2020 / nested_continuous_ridge_alpha | 30 | 3.673210 | 0.048375 | 0.154442 |
| 2020 / nested_grid_center_alpha | 30 | 3.755763 | 0.050496 | 0.159738 |
| 2022 / fixed_A_1.0 | 48 | 6.213074 | 0.023255 | 0.092292 |
| 2022 / fixed_D_0.8 | 48 | 5.886072 | 0.018543 | 0.083042 |
| 2022 / fixed_E_0.8 | 48 | 5.532653 | 0.016959 | 0.077897 |
| 2022 / nested_center_selector_alpha_0.8 | 48 | 5.532653 | 0.016959 | 0.077897 |
| 2022 / nested_continuous_ridge_alpha | 48 | 5.476546 | 0.016402 | 0.077141 |
| 2022 / nested_grid_center_alpha | 48 | 5.472806 | 0.016411 | 0.077183 |
| 2024 / fixed_A_1.0 | 54 | 4.079500 | 0.041069 | 0.144684 |
| 2024 / fixed_D_0.8 | 54 | 3.979626 | 0.037642 | 0.129493 |
| 2024 / fixed_E_0.8 | 54 | 3.912091 | 0.043413 | 0.139908 |
| 2024 / nested_center_selector_alpha_0.8 | 54 | 3.912091 | 0.043413 | 0.139908 |
| 2024 / nested_continuous_ridge_alpha | 54 | 3.957681 | 0.041863 | 0.134392 |
| 2024 / nested_grid_center_alpha | 54 | 3.944155 | 0.041998 | 0.134997 |
Chronological probabilities: archived analytical normal; distinct from inherited t7 probability scores.
These are inspected approximate-vintage historical replays, not independently certified historical polling vintages. 142 observations / 71 races / 4 inspected cycles; approximate vintage; no prospective validation. E was selected from the same A–J cohort; fixed-E chronology is descriptive, not selection-corrected validation. Repeated horizons are dependent; 2018 has five races. E is margin-oriented; D remains the probability reference. Shared A sigma yields E 95% interval coverage of 98.6%. Three historical zero-poll rows use archived inferred centers, unlike the operational F+Q rule.
Beta 0.1 canonical ZIP: b599defecbd76aecf5958fc66eefd312cc7d17f19dad488a4fa0c0aaca563354
E08 sprint ZIP: 264fcacae5e41384bb210beac2b1eff912006580e2d7b47d80345e6a9d20db9a
Model specification: 3d6a3e2219714633578d7762b90d4960ccc89907a22924ad3f220da5d7234f7b
3d6a3e2219714633578d7762b90d4960ccc89907a22924ad3f220da5d7234f7bbeta-0.2-selection-12026-10-25T16:44: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 HISTORY
Beta 0.2 follows experiments conducted through COYNTOSS v22. The experimental lineage remains distinct from the stable forecast, which was not changed by this work.
Research archive and prior model experiments
E08 experimental margin baseline; Beta 0.1 D preserved as a frozen reference
This frozen record carries no prospective validation; any publication requires separate authorization